This is our rating system for any PrizePicks props we provide picks for:
[S Rating] – We’re incredibly confident that this pick has value. There may be small apprehensions, but the positives usually far outweigh them.
[A Rating] – We’re pretty sure that this pick has value. There are obvious concerns, but they are obscure enough that we wouldn’t allow them to stop us from making the pick with confidence.
[B Rating] – We’re 50/50 on whether or not this pick has value. Our guts say it has value, but the circumstances surrounding the pick leave it somewhat shaky. At worst, it’s probably fair.
We would love to see League of Legends player props on regular sportsbooks, but unfortunately most don’t bother unless it’s an international event. PrizePicks is a godsend in this regard, as they have player props for most of the biggest LoL leagues (even if they don’t always have every player listed). However, they also have way too much vig for us on your average pick. If we assume that PrizePicks has the sharpest lines in the world for LoL player props, then that would mean every prop they put out there is a 50/50 prop, and thus, the fair odds for those props would be +100. That would mean that a parlay of two PrizePicks props would be +300 fair.
Most sportsbooks take their cut by making 50/50 props -110 on both sides. This means that their parlay for two picks would be roughly +265 or so.
However, PrizePicks gives you a flat payout of three times your money for a parlay of two picks. That’s only +200.
As you can see, that’s incredibly less for making the same picks. It makes finding true value picks practically impossible on PrizePicks because you would have to find lines that are nowhere near 50/50 just to have a chance.
So when we say this PrizePicks prop has “value” we don’t mean it in the same way as when we’re talking about a normal sportsbook bet. With a regular sportsbook, value means that the bet is paying you more than it should relative to the chances of it happening. For example, a 50/50 bet that pays +200 (an insane example to get our point across).
But with a PrizePicks prop, “value” just means that it has a distinctly higher than 50% chance of hitting. Payout is irrelevant because it’s the same no matter what you choose, and that payout is usually you getting taxed the hell out of by PrizePicks.
In order to have true value in the normal sense on PrizePicks, you would have to find a prop that has roughly -140 odds fair (or better).
And then, if that wasn’t hard enough, you’d have to find a second one.
While certainly not impossible, PrizePicks generally goes above and beyond to make sure that doesn’t happen very often. That’s why some of their props are over/under a whole number, such as 9.0 for instance.
You rarely see most sportsbooks use whole numbers because of the push factor. They would rather have a win/loss result than to give you the opportunity to push and decide against making a second bet. That’s because they can simply shift their payouts as needed depending on the odds.
PrizePicks uses whole numbers regularly though, because without them, there would be many more instances where -140 fair odds would become a possibility, and they would be on the hook to lose money because they pay a flat rate no matter what the bet is.
What are we rambling on about all of this to say? Well, that even some of the best value on PrizePicks isn’t really value.
However, we understand that PrizePicks has a large amount of users because for many, especially in the US, it’s practically the only way to “legally” bet.
And also, because it’s the only place that reliably offers LoL player props.
For these reasons, we try to cover them when we can or when we’re asked to, but we’d like to clear up any potential misunderstandings about value regarding any PrizePicks props we may give picks for before they even begin.
That’s the one and only purpose of all of this. Now that it’s out of the way and everyone knows what we’re up against, let’s get this cash.